Exchange: NASDAQ | Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Auto Manufacturers
Q2 2025
Published: Nov 21, 2024
Earnings Highlights
Revenue of $5.35M down 36.6% year-over-year
EPS of $-0.18 decreased by 5.9% from previous year
Gross margin of 8.6%
Net income of -4.70M
"we are uniquely positioned to take advantage of numerous opportunities in the medium and heavy-duty EV sector." - Fraser Atkinson
GreenPower Motor Company Inc (GP) QQ2 2025 Results Analysis – Deliveries Ramp Ahead of Plan, but Profitability and Liquidity Remain Challenging
Executive Summary
GreenPower’s QQ2 2025 results show a meaningful quarterly revenue increase as production ramps up, but the company remains EBITDA-negative with sizable cash burn and leveraged balance sheet. Revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2024 stood at 5.35 million USD, up 78% QoQ from the prior quarter, and up 78% in deliveries in the first half of the quarter, driven by higher volumes across EV Star cargo vans, BEAST school buses, and shuttle-type vehicles. However, gross margin remained modest at 8.6% due largely to negative margins in the Truck Body division, and overall operating income and net income were deeply negative (EBITDA of -3.70 million; net income of -4.70 million; EPS -0.18). Management emphasizes a strategic ramp, leveraging manufacturing enhancements, and monetization of regulatory credits as key levers for profitability and liquidity improvement. The company completed a 3 million share offering in October 2024 to fund vehicle production and product development, underscoring the ongoing need for external capital to sustain cash burn as volumes scale. Management guidance centers on a targeted production cadence (approximately 20 units per month) and a step-up in deliveries each quarter, supported by West Virginia production enhancements and efforts to monetize tradable credits. Investors should monitor (i) the pace of production and margin recovery as throughput improves, (ii) the success of credit monetization activities, (iii) access to liquidity facilities, and (iv) the trajectory of cash burn as the company moves toward positive free cash flow.
Key Performance Indicators
Revenue
5.35M
QoQ: 78.41% | YoY:-36.64%
Gross Profit
459.64K
8.60% margin
QoQ: 107.17% | YoY:-62.61%
Operating Income
-4.13M
QoQ: 15.90% | YoY:-3.48%
Net Income
-4.70M
QoQ: 12.75% | YoY:-10.43%
EPS
-0.18
QoQ: 14.29% | YoY:-5.88%
Revenue Trend
Margin Analysis
Key Insights
Revenue: 5.35 million in Q2 2025, YoY -36.6%, QoQ +78.4% (Q1 2025 revenue ~3.00 million; Q2 2025 revenue 5.35 million).
Gross profit: 0.46 million, gross margin 8.6% (vs. prior periods with negative Truck Body margins).
EBITDA: -3.70 million; EBIT margin: -77.1% of revenue; Net income: -4.70 million; EPS: -0.18.
SG&A: 3.88 million (selling, general and administrative); R&D: 0.40 million.
- Revenue: 5.35 million in Q2 2025, YoY -36.6%, QoQ +78.4% (Q1 2025 revenue ~3.00 million; Q2 2025 revenue 5.35 million).
- Gross profit: 0.46 million, gross margin 8.6% (vs. prior periods with negative Truck Body margins).
- EBITDA: -3.70 million; EBIT margin: -77.1% of revenue; Net income: -4.70 million; EPS: -0.18.
- SG&A: 3.88 million (selling, general and administrative); R&D: 0.40 million.
- Operating cash flow: -1.33 million; Free cash flow: -1.36 million.
- Cash and equivalents: 0.117 million; Net debt: 18.39 million; Total debt: 18.51 million; Current ratio: 1.44; Quick ratio: 0.06; Cash burn persists despite liquidity facilities.
- Cash inflows from financing: 0.89 million; Equity offering: 3.0 million gross (October 2024) to fund production and development.
- Production mix: 11 Type D BEASTs, 6 EV Star Cargo Plus, 5 EV Stars in the quarter; additional units in transit/production (e.g., Nano BEAST, shuttle variants).
Income Statement
Metric
Value
YoY Change
QoQ Change
Revenue
5.35M
-36.64%
78.41%
Gross Profit
459.64K
-62.61%
107.17%
Operating Income
-4.13M
-3.48%
15.90%
Net Income
-4.70M
-10.43%
12.75%
EPS
-0.18
-5.88%
14.29%
Key Financial Ratios
currentRatio
1.44
grossProfitMargin
8.6%
operatingProfitMargin
-77.1%
netProfitMargin
-87.9%
returnOnAssets
-11.9%
returnOnEquity
-113.2%
debtEquityRatio
4.46
operatingCashFlowPerShare
$-0.05
freeCashFlowPerShare
$-0.05
priceToBookRatio
8.74
priceEarningsRatio
-1.93
Net Income vs. Revenue
Expense Breakdown
Management Commentary
- Strategy and policy exposure: Fraser Atkinson highlighted an opportunistic stance on federal programs with a longer-term focus on states like California and New York that will continue to push electrification, underscoring GreenPower’s credit monetization potential and live order backlog (>300 live orders) for all-electric school buses. He signaled ongoing adaptation to regulatory incentives and the dealer-based EPA funding flow, noting that funding timing remains “work in process.”
- Operational ramp and margin potential: Brendan Riley emphasized the path to profitability through throughput gains, a expanded production footprint (new large volume paint booth, factory floor re-layout) and the objective of building/shipping 20 units per month, with anticipated higher gross margins as throughput improves.
- Credit monetization and market position: Management stressed tradable credits as a meaningful, scalable revenue and cost-deferral lever, noting limited trading activity in medium/heavy-duty credits but substantial activity in light-duty credits (e.g., Tesla, Rivian) and GreenPower’s intent to monetize credits through NDAs and a trading broker. Fraser Atkinson quantified the MHD market’s limited current credit trades (CARB reported only 2 trades to date), indicating substantial upside if the monetization program matures.
- Financing and liquidity: The call reiterates reliance on the EDC revolving facility and recent equity financing to fund production, with management framing cash flexibility as a critical enabler of ramping volumes while maintaining quality and cost discipline.
we are uniquely positioned to take advantage of numerous opportunities in the medium and heavy-duty EV sector.
— Fraser Atkinson
Our goal is to increase production so that we are consistently building and shipping 20 units per month.
— Brendan Riley
Forward Guidance
Management guidance centers on a near-term production ramp and quarterly delivery increases, supported by West Virginia manufacturing improvements. The company aims to sustain a 20-unit-per-month production cadence and to continue stepping deliveries quarter-over-quarter. The monetization of tradable credits represents a strategic optionality that could meaningfully improve gross margins and cash flow if a active market develops in the medium/high-duty credit space. However, the path to profitability hinges on (i) sustained production throughput improvements (reducing unit cost via scale), (ii) closure and monetization of credit trades, (iii) continued access to liquidity facilities and external equity, and (iv) the timing of EPA/state incentives and dealer funding. Achievability seems contingent on: (a) successful ramp to the 20 units/month target, (b) operating leverage in the Truck Body and other segments, and (c) favorable credit markets and regulatory developments. Investors should monitor quarterly delivery cadence, unit economics per vehicle type, progress on West Virginia production enhancements, and any updates on the timing and scale of credit monetization deals and EPA/state funding approvals.
Competitive Position
Company
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Return on Equity
P/E Ratio
GP Focus
8.60%
-77.10%
-1.13%
-1.93%
PEV
15.20%
-59.00%
-62.30%
-21.70%
EVTV
25.10%
-1.63%
-4.16%
-9.83%
VLCN
-2.31%
-5.88%
-7.68%
-6.18%
ZAPP
0.00%
0.00%
0.01%
-1,570.25%
Gross Profit Margin
Operating Profit Margin
Return on Equity
P/E Ratio Comparison
Investment Outlook
GreenPower remains high-risk and highly speculative, with a clear production ramp in motion but a fragile profitability and liquidity profile. The QQ2 2025 quarter demonstrates a meaningful QoQ revenue uplift on stronger production, yet EBITDA and net income remain negative, and cash burn persists. The company’s strategic opportunities hinge on two closely watched catalysts: (1) successful monetization of tradable credits in the medium/high-duty space, and (2) sustained throughput growth toward the 20 units/month target, aided by West Virginia manufacturing enhancements and cost-reduction programs. The October 2024 equity offering provides a liquidity runway, but ongoing capital needs imply continued sensitivity to equity markets and debt terms. If GreenPower can stabilize gross margin through throughput gains, accelerate credit monetization, and maintain access to liquidity facilities, the investment thesis improves; otherwise, the stock will likely remain capital-intensive with limited near-term profitability. Investors should monitor quarterly delivery metrics, unit economics by product line, credit monetization milestones, liquidity runway, and any regulatory/tax credit developments that could materially alter the 12–24 month trajectory.
Key Investment Factors
Growth Potential
Growth is anchored in expanding MHD BEAST and EV Star volumes, monetizing tradable credits, and improving throughput at the West Virginia facility. Management targets ~20 units/month with ongoing pipeline (300+ live orders). If throughput improves and credit monetization scales, GreenPower could meaningfully lift gross margin and free cash flow.
Profitability Risk
Key risks include continued negative EBITDA and cash burn, dependence on external financing to fund operations, regulatory and incentive uncertainty, dealer- and government-funding timing for EPA/state programs, and execution risk in scaling production without compromising quality.
Financial Position
Liquidity is constrained (cash 0.12m) with substantial debt (total debt 18.51m, net debt 18.39m) and weak liquidity ratios (quick ratio 0.06, current ratio 1.44). Equity raise of 3.0m gross in Oct 2024 indicates reliance on capital markets to fund growth. Balance sheet shows negative retained earnings (-88.95m) and sizable accumulated OCI. Despite these headwinds, current assets exceed current liabilities, and a financing facility plus a convertible path could support near-term production ramp.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
Growing backlog and >300 live orders for all-electric school buses and related fleets, creating a clear demand signal.
Strategic focus on California, New York and other policy-driven states; potential to monetize regulatory credits.
Ongoing manufacturing enhancements (paint booth, floor relayout) that support throughput and unit cost reduction.
Ability to monetize credits in the MHD space, with a plan to engage brokers and OEM partners.
Weaknesses
Significant near-term cash burn and negative EBITDA.
Thin liquidity position (cash ~0.12m) and high leverage (net debt ~$18.39m).
Low gross margin (~8.6%) driven by Truck Body underperformance; margin upside uncertain until throughput improves.
Reliance on external financing (EDC facility, equity offerings) to fund operations and capex.
Limited track record of medium/heavy-duty credit trades; execution risk in monetization strategy.
Opportunities
Credit monetization could materially improve profitability if a robust market for medium/heavy-duty credits develops.
Production ramp to 20 units/month could drive operating leverage and margin expansion.
West Virginia plant enhancements could reduce per-unit costs and increase capacity.
Regulatory tailwinds (state-level EV mandates, EPA credits) bolster demand for buses and commercial EVs.
Potential cross-sell across EV Star, Nano BEAST, and other mobility products.
Threats
Regulatory/regulatory funding timing uncertainty (EPA/IRA programs) could delay revenue realization.
Market competition from established OEMs and new entrants in the MHD EV segment.
Supply chain disruptions or cost inflation impacting unit economics.
Credit market volatility could hinder monetization prospects and financing terms.
Sustained losses may limit investor appetite and increase discount rates for equity financing.
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