The Greenbrier Companies (GBX) delivered a solid QQ3 2024 performance characterized by backlog-driven revenue visibility, a mid-teens gross margin trajectory, and meaningful operating leverage. Revenue stood at $818.7 million with a gross margin of 15.0% and EBITDA of $92.5 million, as management cited ongoing efficiency gains and favorable mix. Net income of $33.9 million and diluted EPS of $1.06 (versus $1.09 per basic share) accompanied by a third straight quarter of mid-teens gross margins reflect progress from the Better Together strategic initiatives and continued ramp of in-house fabrication and leasing expansion.
Key geological features of the quarter include a robust order book (6,300 units worth $830 million) and a backlog of 29,400 units valued at approximately $3.7 billion, providing substantial revenue visibility. International activity remains meaningful (roughly 25% of quarterly orders coming from Europe and Brazil), with the European leasing channel delivering momentum and the milestone of delivering the 1,000th leased wagon in Q3.
Management foresees continued momentum into Q4 with higher deliveries as line changeovers normalize and syndications progress. The company narrowed full-year guidance: deliveries of 23,500–24,000 units (including 1,400 from Brazil) and revenue of $3.5–$3.6 billion, with full-year gross margin projected in the mid-teens (14–16%). Insourcing initiatives are expected to realize the majority of their savings by spring 2025, contributing to improved margins over time. Net liquidity remains solid at approximately $605 million, and ~85% of debt is fixed at about 4% on average, with a continued emphasis on reducing recourse debt as cash flows improve. The dividend remains attractive (quarterly $0.30 per share, ~2.5% yield) and the company continues to deploy capital toward fleet growth to double recurring revenue.
Overall, GBX faces the cyclical risk profile typical of railcar manufacturers but is well-positioned to translate backlog and leasing growth into higher recurring EBITDA and cash flow, supported by a disciplined capital allocation framework. Investors should monitor progress on insourcing benefits, the cadence of Q4 deliveries, syndication activity, and the evolution of leverage as the fleet grows.