Vail Resorts delivered a challenging QQ4 2024 performance dominated by weather-driven headwinds and industry demand normalization, with a negative quarterly gross margin and an EBITDA deleverage dynamic. The quarter's revenue was $265.386 million, but gross profit was negative by $20.5 million, and operating income and net income were deeply negative at -$198.7 million and -$175.4 million, respectively, translating to an EPS of -$4.67. For the full year 2024, the company reported a net income of $230.4 million and noted that Resort Reported EBITDA remained roughly flat versus the prior year after excluding Crans-Montana, underscoring resilience from ancillary spend and cost discipline amid weak weather and industry normalization. Management signaled a multi-year Resource Efficiency Transformation Plan targeting $100 million in annualized cost efficiencies by the end of fiscal 2026 (with roughly $27 million in FY2025 and $67 million in FY2026), offset by anticipated one-time costs of ~$29 million over FY2025–FY2026. The plan also contemplates Crans-MMontana integration, expansion of a global shared services model, and workforce management enhancements to support scale as the company expands internationally, notably in Europe. The company provided an initial FY2025 guidance range of net income $224–$300 million and Resort Reported EBITDA $838–$894 million, with an assumed $10 million EBITDA drag from Australia in Q1 FY2025 and a normalized weather backdrop. Liquidity stood at roughly $946 million, with net debt around 3.0x trailing EBITDA; share repurchases and a quarterly dividend were maintained. Investors should monitor: (1) weather normalization and pass-holder dynamics (renewals vs. new passes), (2) Crans-Montana integration and European expansion progress, (3) the productivity of the Resource Efficiency Transformation Plan and its timing, (4) tourism demand resilience and FX sensitivities, and (5) capital allocation decisions amid leverage normalization.
The outlook implies meaningful improvement from price and ancillary spending, but execution risk remains tied to weather, competitive dynamics, and integration benefits from scale initiatives.